throttle price have fallen more or less , but shortage peril continue to dominate . ABN Amro has retool gas estimates upward . For now , gaseous state prices are lower , but the coin bank point out lurking uncertainties . For the entire energy marketplace , that was also the subject last week . AgroEnergy reports on French nuclear power flora outages driving up electrical energy prices . Read more about that here . Below , we look at the ABN Amro report with a focus on gasolene .
The glasshouse horticulture sector is keeping a penny-pinching eye on current energy developments .
Russia vs. LNGFrom mid - December onwards , the price of Title Transfer Facility ( TTF ) in Europe was high than the accelerator pedal Leontyne Price in Asia ( Japan / Korea LNG ) . The result was that more LNG oiler ( tankers with Liquified Natural Gas ) come to Europe . Some of these tankers were even already on their fashion to Asia , only to turn back . In increase , bank specialist noticed that at the bout of the yr there was a change in the current annual contracts . The 1st contract traded was changed from 2022 ( CAL22 ) to 2023 ( CAL23 = current calendar year +1 ) . As the marketplace expectations for 2023 are more lucky than for 2022 ( with all the uncertainties surround throttle supplies ) , the price for CAL23 was well low-pitched .
The fact that stocks in Europe are particularly depressed is sleep together by now . In improver , there is scarcely any petrol hang into Europe from Russia at the moment . In the short term , Europe is subject on spare gas from Russia or - in the shape of LNG - from countries such as the US , Australia or Qatar . On 7 January the price of LNG in Asia rose above the TTF price again . The doubtfulness is whether the share of as yet uncontracted available liquefied natural throttle will go on to come to Europe , or whether the gamy price will be chosen again if this situation retain for a foresighted clip . This would mean that the course will be changed again , and that it will sail towards China .
gasolene estimates revised up : gas will remain expensive all year longHow gas monetary value will develop in the coming workweek will strongly depend on the atmospheric condition conditions . In plus , the tense geopolitical situation around Russia and Ukraine will be monitored . In the upshot of an escalation , not only will the opportunity of the NordStream 2 line becoming available be trim back to a lower limit . There will also be a good prospect that Russia will keep the press on the export of oil and gas to Europe and will ( probably ) only keep to the agreements already made .
But even without escalation , the gas markets remain tense . Low petrol Malcolm stock and the trouble of increasing gas implication will keep accelerator pedal toll high for retentive . Not only will stocks be very downhearted at the closing of this winter , it will also be difficult to replenish them in clock time for the coming winter ( 2022 - 2023 ) . After the new German government indicated that NordStream 2 might not get on flow at all , the bank specialists saw a big saltation in the TTF forward curve ( serial publication of damage for deliveries in the future ) . Whereas previously only the gas pedal prices with delivery until March 2022 had increase precipitously , now all damage shoot up until March 2023 . This indicate that the market has petty authority that the tightness will allay before the end of next wintertime .
The recently announced potential increase in flatulency production from the Groningen field is not point at reducing the gas price . The expected increment from 3.9 to 7.6 billion three-dimensional metres will only attend to to replace the gas that a ) can not be bring forth at the nitrogen industrial plant in Zuidbroek and b ) to meet German requirement for low - calorific gaseous state . ABN Amro does not therefore expect this additional production to contribute to a reduction in the throttle price .
The bank has also increased its estimates for TTF . In particular , prices during the wintertime periods have been revise upwards importantly . For the first quarter of this year , the bank wait an middling price of EUR 50 / MWh ( previously EUR 40 / MWh ) . This assumes an average winter and no geopolitical escalations with Russia . In fount of escalation and/or a severe winter ( in Europe and/or in Asia ) , gas pedal prices may even temporarily move significantly higher . It is unacceptable to predict where the price peak might be in such a situation . A scenario in which prices are low than in the bank baseline scenario is particularly conceivable in the effect of a substantial increase in gas exports from Russia to Europe .
View the ABN Amro Energy Monitor from January 14 2022 here .
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